Sports - NFL Predictions

For those of us who are fans of American football, something like a holiday is about to happen. Preseason has concluded, the bugs supposedly have been worked out and strategies have been established, and now the real thing can begin. The game can really begin, there will be winners and losers, drama and foregone conclusions, and the so-called experts will opinionate and in the end be wrong.

Take heart fans of teams that aren't located on a coast or in a pre-approved championship city. I did a quick search of Super Bowl predictions, and sites as diverse as ESPN, Sports Illustrated, and About.com failed to make a single accurate pick of the Super Bowl champion. 

Year	Predicted	Actual	Result
2003	New York Giants Over Kansas City Chiefs	Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over Oakland Raiders	WRONG
2004	Seattle Seahawks Over Indianapolis Colts	New England Patriots Over Carolina Panthers	WRONG
2005	Pittsburgh Steelers Over Seattle Seahawks	New England Patriots Over Philadelphia Eagles	WRONG
2006	Indianapolis Colts Over Seattle Seahawks	Pittsburgh Steelers Over Seattle Seahawks	WRONG
2007	New England Patriots Over New Orleans Saints	Indianapolis Colts Over Chicago Bears	WRONG
2008	Philadelphia Eagles Over San Diego Chargers	New York Giants Over New England Patriots	WRONG
2009	Pittsburgh Steelers Over Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers Over Arizona Cardinals	WRONG
2010	New England Patriots Over New Orleans Saints	New Orleans Saints Over Indianapolis Colts	WRONG
2011	Atlanta Falcons Over San Diego Chargers	Green Bay Packers Over Pittsburgh Steelers	WRONG
2012	Green Bay Packers Over Denver Broncos	New York Giants Over New England Patriots	WRONG

So, regardless of who proclaims themselves an expert and how “complex” their prediction model, in the end it’s all just a guess and one that’s more often informed by fandom than facts.